ANHUI ZHONGDING(SZ:000887) Southwest Securities·2024-05-06 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.26 CNY based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [6][32]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience steady growth driven by both internal expansion and external acquisitions, with significant revenue increases anticipated in its new business segments [15][32]. - The company achieved a revenue of 172.44 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.63%, and a net profit of 11.31 billion CNY, up 16.78% [37][52]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: 196.37 billion CNY - 2025: 225.21 billion CNY - 2026: 258.20 billion CNY - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2024: 14.09 billion CNY - 2025: 16.71 billion CNY - 2026: 19.12 billion CNY - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit is projected at 19.1% [32][52]. Business Segment Performance - Sealing Business: Expected revenue growth of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins projected at 26.6%, 26.8%, and 27.0% respectively [34]. - Noise and Vibration Control (NVH) Business: Anticipated revenue growth of 10% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins of 20.5% in 2024 and 21.0% thereafter [3][34]. - Air Suspension Business: Projected revenue growth of 64.6% in 2024, followed by 21.3% and 23.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with gross margins expected to stabilize at 23.0% [41]. - Lightweight Business: Expected to grow by 14.4% in 2024, 18.2% in 2025, and 11.5% in 2026, with gross margins improving to 16.0% by 2026 [19][22]. - Cooling Pipeline Business: Revenue growth forecasted at 15.4% in 2024, 22.3% in 2025, and 22.8% in 2026, with gross margins projected to reach 17.0% by 2026 [35]. Market Position and Comparables - The company is compared with peers such as Top Group and Zhejiang Xiantong, with average PE ratios for 2024-2026 projected at 18, 14, and 12 times respectively [6][23]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at 173.12 billion CNY, with a current share price of 13.15 CNY [23][32].