Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) Haitong Securities·2024-05-06 02:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6][10] Core Views - The company is recognized as the largest green low-carbon aluminum supplier in China, emphasizing high-quality development through a "green aluminum integration" model, leveraging the abundant green electricity in Yunnan Province, with approximately 80% of its production electricity sourced from green energy in 2023 [5][6] - The company has established a comprehensive green aluminum integrated industrial scale, with annual production capacities of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.05 million tons of green aluminum, 800,000 tons of anode carbon, 20,000 tons of graphitized cathodes, and 157,000 tons of green aluminum alloys by the end of 2023 [5][6] - The supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market are expected to improve, driven by strong demand from the photovoltaic sector and the growth of the new energy vehicle market, with a projected increase in aluminum prices in the medium to long term [6][8] - The company's financial health is improving, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 35.29% in 2022 to 25.60% in 2023, indicating better asset quality and stable profit growth [6][12] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Outperform the Market" with a target price range of 16.44 to 17.81 CNY per share based on a PE ratio of 12-13 times for 2024 [6][10] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.669 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.956 billion CNY, and an EPS of 1.14 CNY [7][12] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.9% in 2024, with net profit expected to rise by 20.2% [7][12] Production and Cost Structure - The company aims for an aluminum production target of approximately 2.7 million tons in 2024, with a focus on enhancing product structure and expanding into high-end markets [8][12] - The average aluminum price is expected to rise from 18,696 CNY per ton in 2023 to 20,004 CNY per ton in 2024, reflecting a positive market outlook [8][9] Market Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is projected to increase significantly due to the growth in photovoltaic installations and new energy vehicles, with a historical high of 216.88 GW of new photovoltaic capacity added in 2023, a 148% year-on-year increase [6][8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing supply-side structural reforms in the aluminum industry, which are expected to limit capacity expansion and support price increases [8][12]