Fuling Zhacai(002507) 海通证券·2024-05-06 02:32Stock Information - Stock price as of April 30: 14.21 yuan [1] - 52-week price range: 11.60-26.08 yuan [1] - Total shares outstanding: 1,154 million shares [1] - Total market capitalization: 16,397 million yuan [1] Investment Rating - Maintains "Outperform" rating [5] Core Views - Q1 2024 revenue declined by 1.5% YoY to 749 million yuan, attributed to a high base effect from the previous year [6] - Net profit increased by 3.9% YoY to 272 million yuan in Q1 2024 [6] - Gross margin in Q1 2024 decreased by 4.17 percentage points YoY to 52.1%, mainly due to the use of high-priced raw materials [7] - Expected improvement in gross margin from Q2 2024 as lower-priced raw materials are utilized [7] - Sales collection in Q1 2024 decreased by 1.8% YoY to 727 million yuan [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: 2,717 million yuan, 2,986 million yuan, and 3,250 million yuan, respectively [14] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: 927 million yuan, 1,028 million yuan, and 1,128 million yuan, respectively [14] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 0.80 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 0.98 yuan, respectively [14] - Gross margin expected to improve to 52.2% in 2024 and remain stable at 52.3% in 2025-2026 [14] Operational Highlights - Continued focus on multi-category product matrix, with pickles as the core and side dishes as a new growth driver [12] - Expansion into online channels and untapped markets [12] - Reduction in sales expense ratio by 5.63 percentage points YoY to 12.2% in Q1 2024 [13] - Management expense ratio decreased by 0.60 percentage points YoY to 2.6% in Q1 2024 [13] - Net profit margin increased by 1.91 percentage points YoY to 36.3% in Q1 2024 [13] Valuation and Recommendations - Target price range for 2024: 16.07-20.08 yuan, based on 20-25x PE ratio [13] - Comparable company valuations show an average PE ratio of 27.13x for 2022, 46.87x for 2023, and 33.65x for 2024 [10]