YILI(600887) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 02:32Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 35 [2][4] Core Views - Revenue fluctuations primarily due to channel adjustments, with cost reductions and fee optimization driving profit growth [2] - Plans to distribute a dividend of CNY 1.2 per share (tax-inclusive), with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 73% [2] - Intends to repurchase CNY 1-2 billion worth of shares for cancellation, resulting in a post-repurchase dividend yield exceeding 4.6% [2] - 2023 revenue reached CNY 126.18 billion, up 2.44% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 10.03 billion, up 16.78% YoY [2] - 2024 revenue target set at CNY 130 billion, with a profit target of CNY 14.7 billion [2] Financial Performance - 2023 liquid milk revenue grew 0.7%, milk powder and dairy products grew 5.1%, cold drinks grew 11.7%, and other products grew 60.7% [2] - Gross margin for 2023 was 32.80%, up 0.29 percentage points YoY, driven by lower milk prices [2] - 2024 Q1 revenue was CNY 32.58 billion, down 2.58% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 3.73 billion, up 7.97% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1 liquid milk revenue declined 6.8% due to channel adjustments and inventory management [2] Future Outlook - Liquid milk channel adjustments are showing initial results, with expected gradual recovery in growth [2] - Infant formula industry pressures are easing, while adult formula business continues to grow [2] - Cold drinks benefit from market concentration, and cheese products are driving growth through B2B channels [2] - Product structure optimization and efficiency improvements are expected to further enhance profitability [2] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue projected at CNY 130.61 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.99 billion [3] - 2025E revenue projected at CNY 136.90 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.36 billion [3] - 2026E revenue projected at CNY 143.50 billion, with net profit of CNY 13.74 billion [3] - 2024E EPS projected at CNY 2.04, 2025E at CNY 1.94, and 2026E at CNY 2.16 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE ratio of 14.02, PB ratio of 3.34, and EV/EBITDA of 10.61 [3] - 2024E dividend yield projected at 5.2% [3] Industry Comparison - Compared to peers, the company has a higher EPS growth rate and lower PE ratio [9] - Sector average PE for 2024E is 16, while the company's PE is 14 [9]