ZFTC(600794) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.42 CNY, while the current price is 3.65 CNY [19][18]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth in smart logistics, with a 12% increase in revenue to 1.5 billion CNY in 2023, and a net profit of 252 million CNY, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [18][19]. - The smart logistics segment has enhanced customer stickiness and has significant potential for monetizing data assets, with a revenue contribution of 1.9 million CNY, growing by 46% year-on-year [18][19]. - The traditional logistics segment is undergoing transformation towards smart logistics, focusing on resource integration and efficiency improvements [18]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.49 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.12 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [2]. - Operating profit (EBIT) is expected to increase from 335 million CNY in 2023 to 668 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 252 million CNY in 2023 to 502 million CNY in 2026, indicating a robust profit growth outlook [2]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The operating profit margin is expected to improve from 22.3% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2026, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9.9% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2026, reflecting better capital utilization [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is anticipated to decrease from 17.59 in 2023 to 8.83 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [2].