23年业绩承压，24Q1利润表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.5 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.2% to 73 million [15] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 80 million, up 54.0% [15] - The company is expected to maintain good growth across various channels in 2024, with a focus on improving cost efficiency [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the company generated revenue from various segments: frozen baking (2.21 billion), cream (650 million), fruit products (190 million), sauces (230 million), other baking materials (190 million), and warehousing and transportation services (20 million) [3] - The revenue growth rates for these segments were +23.9%, +27.7%, -8.5%, +18.1%, -8.8%, and +1145.3% respectively, with frozen baking and cream showing strong performance [3] Channel Performance - The company's revenue distribution by channel in 2023 was approximately 55% from circulation, 30% from supermarkets, and 15% from catering, tea drinks, and new retail, with growth rates of roughly flat, 50%, and close to doubling respectively [3] - In Q1 2024, circulation and catering channels grew by about 25% and over 50% respectively, while the supermarket channel experienced a decline due to high base effects from the previous year [3] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2023 was 31.4%, with a slight increase to 32.6% in Q1 2024 [4] - The net profit margin for 2023 was 2.1%, which improved to 8.4% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.1 billion in 2024, 4.7 billion in 2025, and 5.3 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 14.7%, and 13.6% respectively [6] - The net profit is expected to rebound significantly in 2024, reaching 272 million, with a projected EPS of 1.61 [6]