船价持续上行，订单高增，业绩拐点已至

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and profit, with a notable turnaround in performance. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 748.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.81%, and a net profit of 29.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1614.73% [5][6] - The shipbuilding industry in China is experiencing a positive trend, with the company securing a substantial number of orders. In 2023, the company received orders for 128 vessels, totaling 728.78 billion yuan, and as of the end of 2023, it had a backlog of 261 vessels worth 1534.99 billion yuan [6] - The continuous rise in ship prices, coupled with a decline in steel prices, has created a favorable margin for shipbuilders, enhancing profitability. The Clarkson new ship price index increased by 10.1% in 2023, marking the highest level since 2009 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 748.39 billion yuan and a net profit of 29.57 billion yuan, with a significant increase in Q1 2024 revenue to 152.70 billion yuan, up 68.84% year-on-year [5][6] - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 55.41 billion yuan, 87.02 billion yuan, and 101.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.24 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.27 yuan [7] Market Position - The company is a leader in the Chinese shipbuilding industry, with a market share of 50.2% in completed shipbuilding, 66.6% in new orders, and 55% in backlog as of 2023 [6] - The company is also expanding its presence in the green shipbuilding sector, capturing 57% of the international market share for new green ship orders [6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast of 29.56 for 2024, decreasing to 16.15 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][7] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 3.16 in 2024 to 2.58 in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [5][7]