Fuanna(002327) 广发证券·2024-05-06 05:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 10.96 CNY and a fair value of 11.35 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance in 2023, with revenue of 3.03 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.02% to 572 million CNY. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.5 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.93% [20]. - In 2023, group purchase revenue grew, while online, direct, and franchise revenues slightly declined. Specifically, online revenue was 1.21 billion CNY (down 5.49%), direct revenue was 723 million CNY (down 1.14%), franchise revenue was 824 million CNY (down 0.43%), and group purchase revenue was 164 million CNY (up 19.48%). The company had 484 direct stores and 1,010 franchise stores, with net increases of 13 and 11 stores, respectively [20]. - The company's gross margin and expense ratio increased in 2023. The gross margin was 55.63%, up 2.53 percentage points, attributed to enhanced brand strength. The expense ratio was 33.11%, up 0.16 percentage points, mainly due to increased sales expenses, particularly in advertising and store display costs. Inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days were 196 days and 38 days, respectively, with no change and an increase of 12 days year-on-year [20]. - The company showed resilience in Q1 2024, with revenue of 652 million CNY (up 5.20%) and net profit of 122 million CNY (up 10.24%). Revenue from direct, franchise, online, and group purchases was 149 million CNY, 134 million CNY, 278 million CNY, and 39 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.15%, 7.50%, 1.34%, and 10.51% [20]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.76 CNY, 0.82 CNY, and 0.89 CNY, respectively. Based on historical averages and considering the company's high dividend yield, a PE ratio of 15 is applied for 2024, resulting in a fair value of 11.35 CNY per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [20]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): 2022A: 3080, 2023A: 3030, 2024E: 3237, 2025E: 3467, 2026E: 3712, with growth rates of -3.1%, -1.6%, 6.8%, 7.1%, and 7.1% respectively [4]. - EBITDA (in million CNY): 2022A: 790, 2023A: 868, 2024E: 860, 2025E: 920, 2026E: 986 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 2022A: 535, 2023A: 572, 2024E: 633, 2025E: 687, 2026E: 745, with growth rates of -2.1%, 7.0%, 10.6%, 8.5%, and 8.5% respectively [4]. - EPS (CNY/share): 2022A: 0.65, 2023A: 0.68, 2024E: 0.76, 2025E: 0.82, 2026E: 0.89 [4]. - P/E ratio: 2022A: 10.95, 2023A: 13.09, 2024E: 14.04, 2025E: 12.94, 2026E: 11.92 [4]. - ROE: 2022A: 14.2%, 2023A: 14.8%, 2024E: 16.1%, 2025E: 17.2%, 2026E: 18.3% [4].