YILI(600887) 西南证券·2024-05-06 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 126.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, the revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 5.92 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and ice cream was 85.5 billion yuan (+0.7%), 27.6 billion yuan (+5.1%), and 10.7 billion yuan (+11.7%) respectively. In Q1 2024, the revenue from these segments was 20.3 billion yuan (-6.8%), 7.4 billion yuan (-0.2%), and 4.3 billion yuan (+14.2%) respectively [2] - The gross margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 32.6% (+0.3pp) and 35.8% (+2pp) respectively, mainly due to the decline in raw milk prices [2] - The net profit margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 8.2% (+0.6pp) and 18.3% (+7.5pp) respectively, significantly boosted by increased investment income from the transfer of subsidiary equity [2] Profitability Outlook - The company expects profitability to improve as cost stabilizes, product structure enhances, and efficiency in expense allocation increases. The company plans to repurchase 1 to 2 billion yuan worth of shares within 12 months to enhance investor returns, reflecting confidence in future development [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 13 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.04 yuan, 2.07 yuan, and 2.18 yuan. The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 14 times, 14 times, and 13 times respectively [3][4]