YILI(600887) 东莞证券·2024-05-06 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected strong performance in the next 6 months, outperforming the market index by more than 15% [8] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was impacted by the timing of Spring Festival preparations, leading to a decline in Q4 revenue and net profit [4] - In 2024Q1, the company's net profit grew significantly due to the sale of a coal subsidiary, which boosted investment income [4] - The company's profitability improved in 2024Q1, driven by product structure optimization and lower raw material costs [5] - The report forecasts EPS of 2.02 yuan and 1.98 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a PE ratio of 14x for both years [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 126.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and net profit of 10.429 billion yuan, up 10.58% [4] - In 2023Q4, revenue was 28.775 billion yuan, down 1.82%, and net profit was 1.048 billion yuan, down 23.47% [4] - In 2024Q1, revenue was 32.577 billion yuan, down 2.58%, while net profit surged to 5.923 billion yuan, up 63.84% [4] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 32.58%, up 0.32 percentage points, and the net margin was 8.18%, up 0.59 percentage points [5] - In 2024Q1, the gross margin increased to 35.79%, up 2.02 percentage points, and the net margin rose to 18.34%, up 7.49 percentage points [5] Product Performance - In 2023, liquid milk revenue was 85.54 billion yuan, up 0.72%, while milk powder and dairy products revenue was 27.598 billion yuan, up 5.09%, and cold drink revenue was 10.688 billion yuan, up 11.72% [4] - In 2024Q1, liquid milk revenue was 20.261 billion yuan, down 6.8%, milk powder and dairy products revenue was 7.428 billion yuan, down 0.2%, and cold drink revenue was 4.333 billion yuan, up 14.2% [4] Forecasts - The report forecasts total revenue of 129.965 billion yuan for 2024 and 135.163 billion yuan for 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.855 billion yuan in 2024 and 12.613 billion yuan in 2025 [7] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.02 yuan in 2024 and 1.98 yuan in 2025 [7]