hbky(SH:600985) GF SECURITIES·2024-05-06 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.8 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 19.24 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance is in line with expectations and shows stronger stability compared to peers, with a net profit of 1.59 billion CNY, down 24.7% year-on-year but up 36.4% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Despite a decrease in production due to a flooding incident, the company effectively controlled costs, leading to a slight increase in coal business gross profit [2]. - The company is expanding its chemical and power generation capabilities, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its coal-electricity integration [2]. Financial Summary - Q1 coal production was 5.24 million tons, down 7.7% year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter, with sales prices increasing by 15% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company anticipates a 30% increase in coal production capacity post the completion of the Tao Hutu coal mine by the end of 2025 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.42 CNY, 2.61 CNY, and 2.75 CNY respectively, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times for 2024 [2][6].