Kaili Catalyst & New Materials (SH:688269) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-06 07:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance showed a quarter-on-quarter decline, but there is optimism regarding the recovery of precious metal prices and the launch of new products in the basic chemical sector, which could drive growth [2]. - The EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.31 and 1.77 CNY respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 2.07 CNY. The target price is set at 31.36 CNY, down from the previous 33.83 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 24X for 2024 [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.785 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, with a net profit of 113 million CNY, down 48.95% year-on-year. Q1 2024 revenue was 305 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 38.35% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 31.55% [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.1 billion CNY, 2.534 billion CNY, and 2.853 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18%, 21%, and 13% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 171 million CNY, with a growth rate of 51% compared to 2023 [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2024 were 10.63% and 3.77%, showing improvements from the previous quarter [2]. Market and Product Insights - The basic chemical sector's revenue contribution has increased to 19.02%, indicating potential for growth as new products are introduced [2]. - The company plans to add 9,077 tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2026, covering various fields including PVC and hydrogen fuel cells, which is expected to significantly expand production capacity [2]. - Precious metal prices are anticipated to recover, with Q1 2024 NYMEX futures prices for palladium and platinum at 980.01 USD/oz and 914.16 USD/oz, respectively, showing a narrowing decline [2].