Citic Press(SZ:300788) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-06 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2] - The target price is set at 33.61 yuan, down from the previous forecast of 54.72 yuan [1][2] Core Insights - The company, as a leading player in the mass publishing industry, has shown significant improvement in its operating and pre-tax metrics, with expectations for continued development [1] - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.84, 1.01, and 1.11 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to changes in the book consumption environment and tax policy adjustments for some state-owned enterprises [1] - The company's market share continues to rise, with a reported market share of 3.25% in the overall book market for 2023, an increase of 0.22 percentage points from the previous year [1] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 is reported at 402 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.79%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 38 million yuan, down 9.89% year-on-year [1][2] - The total profit before tax showed significant improvement, with year-on-year growth of 27.9% and 23.7% for the respective metrics [1] - The financial forecast indicates total revenue of 1,914 million yuan for 2024, with a projected EBIT of 193 million yuan [2] Market Position - The company has maintained its leading position in the publishing sector, with significant rankings in various categories such as management, psychology, and biography, and has improved its rankings in children's and natural science books [1] - The company is actively leveraging AI technology to enhance production and product offerings, with ongoing investments in this area [1] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a PE ratio forecast of 48.63 for 2023, decreasing to 35.42 for 2024, indicating a positive trend in valuation [2] - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 6.8% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2026 [2]