GAONA(300034) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 27.28 CNY [5][18] Core Views - The company's profitability has reached a three-year high, driven by strong performance from its subsidiary Xinlitong and stable growth in traditional aerospace engine-related businesses [5] - The company benefits from overseas supply shortages of high-temperature alloys, leading to robust export growth [5] - The company's Q1 2024 revenue increased by 28.61% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 57.74% YoY [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin reached 33.16% and 16.13% respectively in Q1 2024, both hitting three-year highs [5] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its aerospace engine-related businesses, with EPS forecasts of 0.52/0.59/0.69 CNY for 2024-2026 [5] Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 7.99 billion CNY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.95 billion CNY [5] - The company's contract liabilities increased by 113.38% YoY, indicating strong demand in the aerospace engine sector [5] - The company's net debt ratio stood at 2.76% in Q1 2024 [5] - The company's operating profit margin is expected to be 12.7% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.9% [5][20] Industry and Market Outlook - The company is a leading player in China's high-temperature alloy sector, with advanced production capabilities in aerospace materials [18] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the aerospace and defense sectors, particularly from the C919 aircraft program [5] - Overseas demand for high-temperature alloys in industries such as petrochemicals, metallurgy, and building materials is driving export growth [5] - The company's subsidiary Xinlitong has shown strong performance, contributing significantly to revenue and profit growth [5] Valuation and Forecasts - The company is valued at 52x PE for 2024, with a target price of 27.28 CNY [5] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 3,932 million CNY in 2024 to 5,295 million CNY in 2026 [5][13] - Net profit is expected to increase from 401 million CNY in 2024 to 534 million CNY in 2026 [5][13] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 21.49x in 2024 to 15.74x in 2026 [5][13]