PSBC(01658) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [1][5]. Core Views - The bank's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, showing stable results with double-digit credit growth and a solid liability base, justifying the "Buy" rating [5]. - Revenue resilience is noted, with a slight decline in profit. Q1 revenue grew by 1.4% year-on-year, making Postal Savings Bank the only state-owned bank to achieve positive revenue growth [5]. - The net interest margin for Q1 narrowed by 10 basis points year-on-year, but interest income increased by 3.1% due to high credit growth, while non-interest income rose by 16.7% [5]. - The bank's loan growth was robust, with total loans increasing by 11.8% year-on-year, driven by a 18.1% increase in corporate loans and a 10.5% increase in retail loans [5]. - The bank's deposit base grew over 10% year-on-year, with retail deposits contributing significantly, enhancing the liability structure [5]. - Asset quality showed slight fluctuations, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% and a provision coverage ratio of 326.9% [5]. Financial Summary - The projected net profit growth rates for Postal Savings Bank from 2024 to 2026 are 0.13%, 2.89%, and 5.80%, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.84, and 0.89 yuan [5][6]. - The target price is set at 5.0 HKD, corresponding to a 0.55 times price-to-book ratio for 2024 [5].