2023年乌白电站注入带来量价齐升，2024Q1业绩保持稳增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][23]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 78.11 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.24 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year. The revenue for Q1 2024 was 15.64 billion yuan, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.97 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year [3][7][21]. - The injection of the Wubai power station has led to an increase in both power generation and on-grid electricity prices, with the average on-grid electricity price rising by 5.0% to 0.281 yuan/kWh in 2023 [3][7][21]. - The company has a controllable hydropower installed capacity of 71.795 million kW as of the end of 2023, accounting for 17.01% of the national hydropower installed capacity [7][21]. Financial Forecasts and Indicators - The company forecasts revenues of 86.92 billion yuan for 2024, 89.83 billion yuan for 2025, and 93.70 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding net profits of 34.18 billion yuan, 36.32 billion yuan, and 38.05 billion yuan respectively [3][24]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.40 yuan for 2024, 1.48 yuan for 2025, and 1.56 yuan for 2026, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.5, 17.4, and 16.6 respectively [3][24]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 16.2% in 2024, 16.3% in 2025, and 16.0% in 2026 [3][24]. Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its core hydropower business while actively pursuing strategic investments in upstream and downstream sectors, achieving an investment income of 4.75 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [4][21]. - The company plans to implement a revenue growth target of 7% for 2024, aiming for a total revenue of 83.8 billion yuan [22][24]. - The ongoing "Six Reservoirs Coordination" initiative is expected to help smooth out water flow fluctuations and increase power generation [22][24].