FENGLE SEED(SZ:000713) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 08:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's seed business continues to grow, while the agrochemical business is under short-term pressure. In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.62% [3][4] - The company has received approval for its first batch of genetically modified corn varieties, which is expected to benefit from the commercialization of genetically modified crops [4] - The company is set to be acquired by Guotou Group, which is expected to enhance technical capabilities and resource integration [4] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2022: 3,005 million yuan - 2023: 3,114 million yuan - 2024E: 3,318 million yuan - 2025E: 3,496 million yuan - 2026E: 3,685 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are 14.8%, 3.6%, 6.6%, 5.4%, and 5.4% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2022: 59 million yuan - 2023: 40 million yuan - 2024E: 59 million yuan - 2025E: 84 million yuan - 2026E: 120 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are -67.9%, -31.6%, 47.3%, 41.8%, and 43.2% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts are: - 2022: 0.10 yuan - 2023: 0.07 yuan - 2024E: 0.10 yuan - 2025E: 0.14 yuan - 2026E: 0.20 yuan [2] Business Performance - The seed business generated revenue of 884 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 34.22%, with corn, rice, and wheat seed revenues growing by 35%, 37%, and 37% respectively [3][4] - The agrochemical business generated revenue of 1.928 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 6.66% [3][4] - The gross margin for the seed business was 28.60%, down 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the agrochemical business had a gross margin of 6.07%, down 1.08 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]