CYPC(SH:600900) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-06 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][19]. Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth in 2023, driven by the injection of the Wuhai Power Station, which enhanced both power generation and on-grid electricity prices [6][5]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in performance, with a projected EPS of 1.40, 1.48, and 1.56 for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 18.5, 17.4, and 16.6 respectively [18][19]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 revenue reached 78,112 million yuan, a 13.4% increase year-on-year; net profit was 27,239 million yuan, up 14.8% [3][6]. - For 2024, revenue is expected to be 86,918 million yuan, reflecting an 11.3% growth, with net profit projected at 34,177 million yuan, a 25.5% increase [3][18]. - Quarterly Performance: - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 15,640 million yuan, a 1.6% increase, and net profit of 3,970 million yuan, up 9.8% [4][6]. - The total power generation for Q1 2024 was approximately 527.5 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year due to reduced water inflow [4][5]. - Profitability Metrics: - The company's EBIT margin is projected to improve from 52.8% in 2023 to 60.4% in 2024 [3][12]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2024 was 26.06%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in financial expense ratios [4][12]. Investment and Dividend Summary - The company achieved an investment income of 4,750 million yuan in 2023, a 3.3% increase year-on-year, with a cash dividend rate of 74% [4][17]. - The total cash dividend for 2023 was 20,064 million yuan, representing 73.66% of net profit, with a dividend per share of 0.82 yuan, yielding a dividend rate of 3.2% based on the latest closing price [4][17]. Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 7% in 2024, targeting a total revenue of 83,800 million yuan [18]. - The company is actively pursuing integrated development in hydropower, wind, and energy storage, which is expected to contribute to stable future performance [18][19].