YADEA(01585) 国泰君安·2024-05-06 10:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Yadea Holdings (1585.HK) with a target price of 18.76 RMB, based on projected EPS of 1.04/1.20/1.39 RMB for 2024-2026 [3][4]. Core Insights - Yadea Holdings has a comprehensive layout in the two-wheeler sector, leveraging its core battery R&D capabilities to lead industry transformation and is expected to unlock growth through battery retrofitting and brand expansion overseas [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing optimization of the industry landscape, with a focus on consumer demand insights as a key asset for success [3]. - Yadea's strategy includes filling market gaps and rapidly expanding its brand overseas, particularly in the E-bike market in Europe and the electric motorcycle market in Southeast Asia [3]. - The company has established a self-sufficient battery supply chain through acquisitions and is leading in graphene and sodium battery technology, which are becoming core brand assets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Yadea's revenue from electric two-wheelers and accessories is projected to grow from 383.02 billion RMB in 2024 to 436.15 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding gross margins increasing from 17.2% to 19.0% [8]. - The battery business is expected to contribute revenues of 53.26 billion RMB in 2024, growing to 70.43 billion RMB by 2026, maintaining a gross margin of 14% [8]. - Overall, the company's revenue is forecasted to reach 392.65 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 18.7% [8]. 2. Company Overview - Yadea has been operating in the electric vehicle sector for over 20 years, continuously expanding its product line and maintaining a strong market presence [16]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the main shareholders holding 62.46% of voting rights as of December 31, 2023 [18]. - Yadea's management team is experienced, with many members having over 20 years in the industry, contributing to the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency [22]. 3. Industry Landscape - The two-wheeler industry is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with market share increasingly concentrating among leading players [30]. - The industry has evolved through three phases: initial electrification, mid-term regulatory catalysts, and a long-term trend towards smart technology [3]. - Consumer demand is shifting towards more diverse applications of electric two-wheelers, emphasizing their social and lifestyle attributes rather than just transportation [31][32].