Lafang(603630) 国泰君安·2024-05-07 05:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lafang Home (603630) with a target price of 20.22 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][15] Core Views - Lafang Home's 2023 performance showed steady growth, with a recovery in profitability [15] - The company's main brands (Lafang and Yujie) contributed 82% of total revenue, growing 4% YoY [15] - E-commerce and distribution channels remained stable, while supermarket sales declined significantly [15] - The company's investment in medical aesthetics (via Yimei International) is expected to become a new growth driver, with losses narrowing significantly in 2023 [15] Financial Forecasts Income Statement - Revenue is expected to grow from 860 million CNY in 2023 to 1,015 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.6% [1][15] - EBIT is projected to increase from 98 million CNY in 2023 to 136 million CNY in 2026 [1] - Net profit is forecasted to grow from 65 million CNY in 2023 to 142 million CNY in 2026 [1][15] Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 2,180 million CNY in 2023 to 2,505 million CNY in 2026 [1] - Shareholders' equity is projected to increase from 1,985 million CNY in 2023 to 2,284 million CNY in 2026 [1] Cash Flow - Free cash flow is expected to turn positive, reaching 92 million CNY in 2024 and 90 million CNY in 2025 [1] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to remain strong, at 147 million CNY in 2023 and 113 million CNY in 2025 [1] Profitability and Valuation - Gross margin is expected to improve from 47.8% in 2023 to 48.8% in 2025 [1] - ROE is projected to increase from 3.3% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2025 [1] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 44.11 in 2023 to 22.31 in 2025, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [1][15] Operational Performance - Inventory turnover days improved from 158.3 days in 2022 to 135.2 days in 2023 [1] - Accounts receivable turnover days decreased from 38.5 days in 2022 to 32.2 days in 2023 [1] - Total asset turnover days increased slightly from 889.5 days in 2022 to 925.7 days in 2023 [1]