海外持续发力，24Q1收入及盈利回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.502 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 612 million yuan, a decrease of 63.96% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, revenue was 4.971 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8 million yuan, down 98.54% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue was 3.474 billion yuan, up 7.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 8.71% year-on-year [5][6] - The company's brand, Ecovacs, faced growth pressure, while the brand, Tineco, continued to grow, actively expanding overseas channels. Revenue from the Ecovacs brand was 7.681 billion yuan, down 1.49% year-on-year, while Tineco's revenue was 7.271 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year. Domestic revenue decreased by 11.43% year-on-year, while overseas revenue increased by 25.76% year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue in 2023, up from 34% in 2022 [5][6] - The competitive landscape in the industry is intensifying, leading to increased upfront investments in new product categories, resulting in a decline in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios. The gross margin for 2023 was 47.50%, down 4.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 7.13 percentage points to 3.95%. However, there was an improvement in Q1 2024, with a net profit margin of 8.57% [5][6] Financial Summary - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.416 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-25 times, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 49.2-61.5 yuan per share [6][10] - Revenue is projected to grow to 17.665 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.0%, and further growth is expected in subsequent years [7][10] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 49.2% in 2024 and stabilize around 49.4% in the following years [10][11]