SHANXI SECURITIES(002500) 中原证券·2024-05-07 06:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shanxi Securities (002500) for the first time, with a target price based on a P/B ratio of 1.04x and 1.01x for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2][3] Core Views - Shanxi Securities has shown resilience in its brokerage business, with net brokerage commission income outperforming the industry despite a decline [3] - The company's bond underwriting business has significantly grown, offsetting the decline in equity financing [3] - Asset management business has expanded rapidly, with public fund assets under management (AUM) growing substantially [3] - The company has a strong regional investment banking advantage in Shanxi and has developed a differentiated competitive edge in FICC and asset management [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Securities achieved revenue of 3.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.88% to 620 million yuan [3] - In Q1 2024, revenue was 631 million yuan, down 44.64% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 159 million yuan, down 36.72% year-on-year [3] - The company's return on equity (ROE) was 3.53% in 2023, an increase of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments Brokerage Business - In 2023, net brokerage commission income was 452 million yuan, down 4.44% year-on-year, but outperformed the industry average [9] - The number of wealth management clients increased by 11.33%, and AUM grew by 28.32% [9] - Institutional brokerage business saw a 71.38% increase in professional institutional clients and a 137.27% increase in AUM [9] Investment Banking - In 2023, net investment banking commission income was 394 million yuan, down 5.74% year-on-year [10] - Equity financing underwriting volume dropped by 65.53% to 2.15 billion yuan, while bond underwriting volume surged by 143.69% to 81.20 billion yuan [10][11] Asset Management - In 2023, net asset management commission income was 245 million yuan, up 19.51% year-on-year [13] - Public fund AUM grew by 123.16 billion yuan, reaching 299.63 billion yuan, while private fund AUM increased by 61.51 billion yuan to 357.85 billion yuan [13] Investment Income - In 2023, investment income (including fair value changes) was 1.75 billion yuan, up 20.80% year-on-year [15] - Fixed-income investment maintained a high level of return, while equity investment reduced portfolio volatility [15] Margin Financing and Stock Pledging - In 2023, margin financing balance increased by 6.09% to 6.77 billion yuan, while stock pledge business decreased by 19.55% to 1.15 billion yuan [16] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.15 yuan and 0.18 yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with BVPS of 5.04 yuan and 5.18 yuan [3] - The P/B ratio is projected to be 1.04x and 1.01x for 2024 and 2025, respectively, based on the closing price of 5.25 yuan on April 30, 2024 [3]