单量重回升势，降本凸显成效，业绩稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][20]. Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery in its business volume, with a significant increase in express delivery volume in the first quarter of 2024, growing by 29.1% year-on-year, surpassing the industry average of 25.2% [4][12]. - Despite a decline in single ticket revenue due to a shift towards lighter goods, the overall revenue has increased due to higher delivery volumes [4][12]. - Cost reduction strategies have been effective, leading to a decrease in core operating costs and an overall improvement in profitability [5][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 7.85 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 228 billion yuan and a PE ratio of 14.02 [1]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 449.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 9.6% to 16.25 billion yuan. For Q1 2024, revenue was 111.6 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, and net profit was 4.12 billion yuan, up 15.0% [3][9]. Business Volume and Growth - The total express delivery volume for 2023 was 188.5 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The first quarter of 2024 saw a substantial increase in business volume, indicating a strong recovery trend [4][12]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its core operating costs by 849 million yuan in 2023, with a 11% decrease in single ticket core operating costs. This trend continued into Q1 2024, where single ticket operating costs fell by 17.3% [5][16]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 520.0 billion yuan, 579.4 billion yuan, and 629.4 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.4%, and 8.6%, respectively. Net profit is projected to reach 20.1 billion yuan, 24.1 billion yuan, and 27.4 billion yuan over the same period [6][20].