跨境电商持续景气，24年增长值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Eastern Airlines Logistics [2][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 12.1% in 2023, with total revenue reaching 20.62 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.49 billion yuan, down 31.6% year-on-year. However, Q1 2024 showed a revenue increase of 14.2% year-on-year, amounting to 5.92 billion yuan, despite a net profit decline of 22.6% [2]. - The decline in immediate freight rates is identified as the primary reason for the profit drop in the air express business. Despite an increase in operational capacity and improved aircraft utilization, the revenue from the air express segment fell by 31.4% due to significant drops in market rates [2][3]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector has shown strong growth, contributing to a 16.7% increase in comprehensive logistics solutions revenue, which reached 9.13 billion yuan in 2023. The cross-border e-commerce solutions alone generated 4.698 billion yuan, up 71.7% year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company handled 2.403 million tons of cargo, a 9.0% increase from the previous year, with a gross margin improvement to 40.5% [3]. - The company has completed its fleet restructuring, now operating a fleet of 14 B777 freighters with an average age of 3.5 years, which is expected to enhance operational safety and reduce costs [3]. - The financial forecasts predict net profits of 2.92 billion yuan, 3.59 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.84 yuan, 2.26 yuan, and 2.65 yuan [3][8]. Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 18.93 yuan and 11.08 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 30.052 billion yuan [5]. - The company is expected to have a PE ratio of 10.3, 8.4, and 7.2 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8]. Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics Co., Ltd. focuses on comprehensive air logistics services, including air express, ground services, and comprehensive logistics solutions, aiming to provide one-stop logistics solutions tailored to customer needs [4].