规模逆势增长，养殖成绩持续好转竞争力增强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 26.16 CNY over the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 89.92 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, but faced a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6.39 billion CNY, a significant decline of 220.81% compared to the previous year. In Q1 2024, revenue was 21.85 billion CNY, up 9.38% year-on-year, with a reduced net loss of 1.24 billion CNY, a decrease in loss of 55.03% [2][3]. - The company has shown resilience with growth in scale despite adverse market conditions, particularly in the poultry and pig farming sectors. The decline in profits was primarily due to low prices for yellow feathered chickens and pigs during the reporting period [2][3]. - The company sold 26.26 million pigs in 2023, a 46.65% increase year-on-year, generating revenue of 46.26 billion CNY, up 12.67%. The average selling price for pigs was 14.81 CNY/kg, down 22.26% year-on-year. Chicken sales reached 1.183 billion birds, a 9.51% increase, with revenue of 34.69 billion CNY, a 2.21% increase [2][3]. - The company aims to sell between 30 to 33 million pigs in 2024, an increase of 4 to 7 million compared to 2023, with a current effective breeding capacity exceeding 35 million pigs [2][3]. - The yellow chicken farming segment is expected to maintain a high level of profitability, with a projected profit of 2-3 CNY per chicken over the full cycle [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.09 CNY, 1.69 CNY, and 1.35 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 11, and 14 times [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 112.72 billion CNY in 2024, 126.16 billion CNY in 2025, and 136.32 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 25.38%, 11.93%, and 8.05% respectively [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to recover to 7.25 billion CNY in 2024, 11.27 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.97 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 213.42%, 55.57%, and -20.42% respectively [4][10]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company is the largest poultry farming enterprise in China, with an expanding market share. The expected growth rates for chicken output are 10% for 2024 and 2025, and 8% for 2026 [9][11]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in pig prices and improved cost management, with a projected gross margin of 9% for the pig segment in 2024 [9][11].