Longi(SH:601012) Great Wall Securities·2024-05-07 11:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longi Green Energy, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a focus on the release of new BC products [1]. - Longi Green Energy remains a leader in the silicon wafer market, with significant growth in global shipments and ongoing capacity expansion [2]. - The company is investing heavily in advanced technologies and differentiated products, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [2][7]. Financial Summary - In 2023, Longi Green Energy reported revenue of 129.498 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.39% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 27.41% to 10.751 billion yuan [1]. - The company anticipates revenues of 96.994 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 25.1%, followed by a recovery to 116.509 billion yuan in 2025 and 138.063 billion yuan in 2026 [1][7]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2.523 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 76.5%, with expected recoveries in subsequent years [1][7]. Production and Capacity - In 2023, the company achieved silicon wafer shipments of 125.42 GW, maintaining its position as the global leader for nine consecutive years [2]. - The company plans to expand its silicon wafer shipments to 135 GW and battery module shipments to 90-100 GW in 2024 [2]. Profitability and Margins - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 18.26%, while the net margin was 8.25% [2]. - In Q1 2024, the gross margin dropped to 8.89%, and the net margin turned negative at -13.34%, indicating significant pressure on profitability due to falling prices in the supply chain [2]. Research and Development - Longi Green Energy's R&D expenses reached 2.283 billion yuan in 2023, with a focus on developing differentiated products in the silicon wafer and battery module segments [2][7]. - The company plans to introduce new products, including the Tai Rui silicon wafer and the second-generation HPBC components, which are expected to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [2][7].