逆变器去库业绩承压，24年拐点将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.5% to 780 million yuan [3][4] - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 15.6% year-on-year, amounting to 1.4 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit to 20 million yuan, down 93.7% [3][4] - The company is expected to see a recovery in shipments and profitability in Q2 2024 as overseas demand for grid-connected inverters improves [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 61.0 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [3][4] - The company sold approximately 740,000 inverters in 2023, a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year, primarily due to high inventory levels in Europe [4] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 was 21.5% and 24.2%, respectively, down from over 30% previously [4] Market Outlook - The overseas market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of inverter shipments exceeding 300,000 units in Q2 2024, including over 200,000 units for international markets [4][9] - The company’s household photovoltaic system business grew significantly, with revenue reaching 1.19 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 106.2% [4][10] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.87% in net profit over the next three years, driven by the end of inventory depletion in Europe [4][11]