TKGF(SH:601233) Donghai Securities·2024-05-08 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company turned a profit in 2023, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit. Revenue reached 82.64 billion yuan, up 33.30% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.80 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 539.10% [9] - The first quarter of 2024 is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions, with revenue of 21.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.66%, and net profit of 0.58 billion yuan, up 218.01% year-on-year [9] - The company holds a 20% stake in Zhejiang Petrochemical, which has contributed positively to its earnings, with investment income of 0.27 billion yuan in 2023 and 0.26 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [9] - The company is expanding its production capacity despite market challenges, with new projects coming online and a total PTA/long filament capacity of 10.20 million tons and 13.50 million tons respectively [9] - The long filament market is expected to see a shift towards oligopoly competition, benefiting the company as a market leader with increasing market share [10] - The company’s profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.97 billion yuan, 4.02 billion yuan, and 5.30 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong outlook [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 82.64 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.80 billion yuan, with a production volume of 10.43 million tons of long filament [9] - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 21.11 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.58 billion yuan, indicating strong growth [9] Market Position - The company has maintained its position as the leading producer of polyester long filament in China for 23 consecutive years, with a market share that continues to grow [10] - The overall demand for polyester fibers is increasing, with polyester accounting for nearly 56% of total fiber demand [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a slowdown in new capacity additions in the long filament market, enhancing its competitive advantage [10] - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a positive growth trajectory, with EPS expected to be 1.23 yuan, 1.67 yuan, and 2.20 yuan respectively [10]