2024年一季报点评：碳纤维产品跌价致一季度盈利收窄，航空应用研发推进加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 32.5 RMB [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was 448 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 42 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 68.12% [1] - The decline in profitability is attributed to the drop in carbon fiber product prices, with the average selling price of carbon fiber in 2023 at 124,300 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 41% [1] - The company's carbon fiber sales volume in 2023 reached 18,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92%, driven by the steady increase in production capacity at the Xining base [1] - The company's gross margin and net margin in Q1 2024 were 25.25% and 9.32%, respectively, down by 15.6 and 13.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's total carbon fiber production capacity reached 28,500 tons by the end of 2023, ranking among the top three globally [1] Financial Performance - The company's 2024E revenue is projected to be 3,068 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 364 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [2] - The company's 2025E revenue is projected to be 3,301 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 447 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [2] - The company's 2026E revenue is projected to be 4,145 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 617 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% [2] - The company's 2024E EPS is projected to be 0.40 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 66x [2] Industry and Market Trends - The price of large-tow carbon fiber has been rising since 2024, with T300 (25K) and T300 (50K) prices increasing by 3.9% and 4.2% respectively by May 3, 2024 [1] - The company is accelerating R&D in aerospace applications, with the progress of carbon fiber aerospace application R&D projects exceeding 64% by the end of 2023 [1] - The company is expanding its product applications in emerging fields such as electronics 3C, automotive, and drones, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage [1] Valuation and Projections - The report projects the company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 364 million RMB, 447 million RMB, and 617 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.40 RMB, 0.50 RMB, and 0.69 RMB [1] - The report assigns a 2025E P/E ratio of 65x, corresponding to a target price of 32.5 RMB [1]