Shenergy(600642) 天风证券·2024-05-08 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its high performance and high dividend payout [4][6] Core Views - The company's coal power business has shown significant improvement, with a 219 52% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 and a 57 96% increase in Q1 2024 [1] - The decline in coal prices has alleviated fuel cost pressures, leading to a 17 52% YoY decrease in coal costs in 2023 and a 10 64pct increase in gross margin for the coal power business [2] - The new energy power generation business continues to expand, with a 19 4% YoY increase in installed capacity to 5 122 million kW by Q1 2024, contributing to a 8 2% and 21 9% YoY increase in wind and solar power generation, respectively [3] - The company plans to increase its total installed capacity to 22-26 million kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with non-hydro renewable energy accounting for 50% [3] - The gas power, oil and gas pipeline transportation, and equity investment businesses have shown stable growth, with gas power generation increasing by 71 2% YoY in Q1 2024 and equity investment income growing by 476 16% YoY in 2023 [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue in 2023 and Q1 2024 was 29 142 billion yuan and 8 071 billion yuan, respectively, representing YoY growth of 3 36% and 10 87% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 and Q1 2024 was 3 459 billion yuan and 1 159 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth of 219 52% and 57 96% [1] - The company's 2023 dividend payout ratio was 56 60%, with a cash dividend of 0 40 yuan per share [4] - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 4 310 billion yuan, 4 635 billion yuan, and 5 121 billion yuan, respectively, with YoY growth of 24 61%, 7 53%, and 10 49% [4] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 9 62x, 8 94x, and 8 10x, respectively [4] Business Segments - Coal power: The company completed 40 201 billion kWh of coal power generation in 2023, a 1 7% YoY decrease, but Q1 2024 saw a 10 0% YoY increase to 11 316 billion kWh [2] - New energy: The company's new energy installed capacity reached 5 122 million kW by Q1 2024, with wind and solar power generation increasing by 8 2% and 21 9% YoY, respectively [3] - Gas power: Gas power generation in Q1 2024 was 2 121 billion kWh, a 71 2% YoY increase [4] - Oil and gas pipeline transportation: The segment achieved a gross profit of 780 million yuan in 2023, a 4 06% YoY increase [4] - Equity investment: The company's equity investment income in 2023 and Q1 2024 was 1 567 billion yuan and 345 million yuan, respectively, with YoY growth of 476 16% and 113 95% [4]