出栏量稳步增长，Q1养殖成本改善

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [16][18] Core Views - The company's pig farming costs improved in Q1 2024, with profits turning positive year-on-year [2] - The company's pig production volume is expected to grow steadily, with a target of 3-3.5 million heads in 2024 [7] - The feed business achieved both volume and profit growth in 2023, with sales reaching 2.804 million tons, up 20.75% YoY [17] - The animal vaccine business saw rapid growth in 2023, with sales reaching 1.74 billion doses, up 33.15% YoY [21] - The industry's losses are driving a new round of capacity reduction, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2024 [12] Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, down 2.9% YoY, but net profit turned positive to 54.06 million yuan [6] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 19.03 billion yuan, up 12.0% YoY, but net profit turned negative to -1.36 billion yuan [10] - The company's gross margin improved from 2.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2024E, and is expected to reach 14.5% by 2026E [3] - The company's ROE improved from -21.3% in 2023 to 8.5% in 2024E, and is expected to reach 13.3% by 2026E [3] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.43, 0.72, and 0.89 yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7x, 10.7x, and 8.6x [18] Industry Outlook - Pig prices in Q1 2024 averaged 14.4 yuan/kg, down 4% YoY, but piglet prices rose significantly after the Spring Festival due to increased demand [2] - The industry's sow inventory at the end of Q1 2024 was 39.92 million heads, down 7.3% YoY, indicating a reduction in capacity [12] - Pig prices are expected to rise in the second half of 2024 due to reduced supply and increased seasonal demand [12] Business Segments - The company's pig production in 2023 reached 2.816 million heads, up 39% YoY, with fattening pigs accounting for 2.595 million heads [10] - The company's feed business revenue in 2023 was 6.49 billion yuan, up 17.4% YoY, with a gross margin of 10.2% [17] - The company's animal vaccine business revenue in 2023 was 1.0 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY, with a gross margin of 62.6% [21]