2024年一季报点评：收入亮眼，目标坚定

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of 2286.53 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that Guizhou Moutai's revenue exceeded expectations, with a total operating income of 464.85 billion CNY in Q1 2024, representing an 18.04% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 240.65 billion CNY, up 15.73% year-on-year, indicating stable performance [4][10]. - The report emphasizes that both Moutai liquor and series liquor are performing well, with the company adjusting its channel structure flexibly to stabilize supply and demand relationships, suggesting that short-term fluctuations do not alter its leading position in the market [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved an operating income of 464.85 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 240.65 billion CNY, reflecting a 15.73% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 92.6%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 54.4%, slightly down by 1.2 percentage points [4][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Moutai liquor revenue in Q1 2024 was 397.07 billion CNY, up 17.7% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue reached 59.36 billion CNY, increasing by 18.4% year-on-year [4][10]. - The wholesale and agency revenue was 263.24 billion CNY, a 25.8% increase year-on-year, while direct sales revenue was 193.19 billion CNY, up 8.5% year-on-year, accounting for 42.3% of total revenue [4][10]. Future Outlook - The report projects that Guizhou Moutai's total revenue target for 2024 is around 15% growth, driven by product, channel, and marketing system enhancements [4][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with EPS estimates for 2024E at 69.58 CNY, 81.36 CNY for 2025E, and 94.51 CNY for 2026E [4][10].