十年磨一剑，聚焦颗粒硅跨越行业周期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage with a target price range of HKD 1.53 to HKD 2.03 per share, corresponding to a market value of HKD 412 to HKD 549 billion [7]. Core Insights - The company focuses on granular silicon, having exited the rod silicon sector in 2023, and aims to enhance its core business in polysilicon materials [1][37]. - The global photovoltaic (PV) market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected installation of 823 GW by 2026, leading to an anticipated silicon demand of 193 million tons [2][20]. - The company has a significant cost advantage in granular silicon production, with a lower energy consumption of 13.8 kWh/kg-Si compared to 57 kWh/kg-Si for rod silicon, allowing for a cost reduction of approximately 14 CNY/kg [3][24]. - The company has secured long-term contracts with leading silicon wafer manufacturers, which will enhance its market share and sales stability [4][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2006 and listed in Hong Kong in 2007, the company is one of the largest polysilicon producers globally, focusing on photovoltaic materials and power plants [1][13]. - The company has strategically reduced its stake in its solar power plant business to 7.44% to concentrate on polysilicon materials [1][15]. Market Dynamics - The global PV market is experiencing rapid growth, with a 93% increase in installations in 2023, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements [18]. - The supply of silicon is expected to exceed demand in the coming years, leading to a relative oversupply in the silicon material sector [2][20]. Product Quality and Cost Efficiency - The company has improved the quality of its granular silicon, achieving a significant reduction in metal impurity levels, with over 20% of its supply now being N-type silicon [3][26]. - The company’s granular silicon production process has a higher yield and lower energy consumption, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [24][32]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 287 billion, CNY 324 billion, and CNY 340 billion, with net profits projected at CNY 25 billion, CNY 30 billion, and CNY 38 billion respectively [6][48]. - The company anticipates that its market share for granular silicon will reach 30% by 2025, up from 17% in 2023 [2][32].