Investment Rating - Buy rating (initiated) with a market price of HKD 6.84 [1] Core Views - Greentown Management Holdings is a leader in China's real estate light-asset development model, with a unique "3+3" business model that includes government, commercial, and capital-side project management, along with financial, industrial, and supply chain services [4] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with Greentown China Holding Limited holding 71.28% of the shares, and has implemented two equity incentive plans to align management and shareholder interests [4] - Strong growth in core businesses, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.3 billion, up 24.3% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% YoY [4] - The company has a diversified customer base, with government, state-owned enterprises, and financial institutions accounting for 69.4% of new project contracts in 2023 [4] Business Overview - Greentown Management Holdings is a pioneer in China's real estate light-asset development model, starting with urban village reconstruction in Hangzhou in 2005 and officially established in 2010 [8] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2020, becoming the first listed company in China's project management sector [8] - The "3+3" business model includes government, commercial, and capital-side project management, along with financial, industrial, and supply chain services [9] Financial Performance - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 3.3 billion, up 24.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% YoY [4] - Commercial project management is the main revenue driver, contributing RMB 2.35 billion in 2023, up 40.6% YoY [4] - The company's projects cover 122 cities across 29 provinces, with a total contracted construction area of 119.6 million square meters, up 17.9% YoY [4] Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.246 billion, RMB 1.557 billion, and RMB 1.908 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.0x, 8.0x, and 6.5x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Market Position - Greentown Management Holdings has maintained a market share of over 20% in the project management industry for eight consecutive years, ranking first in the industry [10] - The company's projects are concentrated in economically developed regions, with the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Pearl River Delta regions accounting for 77.7% of the total estimated salable value [25] Valuation - The company's valuation is supported by its strong market position, diversified customer base, and robust growth prospects, with a buy rating initiated [5]
代建标杆，稳步成长