KAIFA(SZ:000021) Guotou Securities·2024-05-09 04:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 21 CNY, while the current stock price is 13.57 CNY as of May 8, 2024 [8]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in gross margin, indicating potential benefits from the recovery in the storage market and domestic substitution trends [11][12]. - The storage market is expected to experience a strong recovery in 2024, driven by AI demand, with the global semiconductor market projected to reach 588.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [5]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic storage packaging and testing provider, benefiting from the recovery of the market and the trend of domestic substitution [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 14.265 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.50% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 645 million CNY, down 2.19% year-on-year [4][14]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 16.52%, an increase of 4.66 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to changes in product structure and cost reduction efforts [4][14]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 3.293 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 19.80%, but a net profit increase of 136.71% year-on-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 17.118 billion CNY, 20.541 billion CNY, and 22.492 billion CNY respectively, with net profits projected at 932 million CNY, 1.238 billion CNY, and 1.509 billion CNY [12][21]. - The company expects to benefit from stable demand from major clients, with significant growth anticipated in the storage semiconductor and high-end manufacturing segments [19][21]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is the only domestic entity with a complete industrial chain from high-end DRAM/Flash packaging to module manufacturing, establishing a significant competitive advantage in the local market [14][19]. - The domestic storage market is largely dominated by foreign companies, presenting substantial opportunities for domestic alternatives [11][12].