CYPC(SH:600900) Minsheng Securities·2024-05-09 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY per share, based on a historical valuation of 20.0 times PE for 2024 [4][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 78.112 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.239 billion CNY, up 14.81% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 CNY per share, totaling 20.064 billion CNY, with a cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 73.66% [2]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.641 billion CNY, a slight increase of 1.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.967 billion CNY, up 9.80% year-on-year [2]. - The overall electricity generation faced pressure in Q1 2024, with a total inflow of 49.767 billion cubic meters at the Three Gorges Reservoir, down 4.14% year-on-year. However, the company’s two power stations achieved a generation of 17.445 billion kWh, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s average on-grid electricity price increased by 1.16 cents/kWh to 0.2813 CNY/kWh in 2023, indicating a favorable pricing environment due to regional supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The company’s financial structure improved, with a net operating cash flow of 64.719 billion CNY in 2023, and a decrease in financial expenses by 296 million CNY in Q1 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was 78,112 million CNY, with a growth rate of 13.4% expected to reach 87,581 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 27,239 million CNY, with a projected increase to 35,167 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 29.1% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.11 CNY, expected to rise to 1.44 CNY in 2024 [3]. Debt and Investment - As of the end of 2023, the company had interest-bearing liabilities totaling approximately 288.7 billion CNY, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.9% [2]. - The company’s investment income increased by 55.7% year-on-year to 900 million CNY in Q1 2024, reflecting improved performance from its equity investments [2]. Market Outlook - The company has set a target electricity generation of 3,074 billion kWh for 2024, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 EPS at 1.44 CNY and 1.47 CNY, respectively [2][3].