q1鸡价低迷拖累业绩，重视周期反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2024 due to low chicken prices, with total revenue of 4.21 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of -62 million yuan, down 169% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to see a recovery in chicken prices in the second half of the year, alongside a continued decrease in costs, which may drive gradual improvement in profitability [3] Summary by Sections Traditional Farming - Q1 chicken meat sales reached 293,500 tons, up 11% year-on-year, with an average price of 10,164 yuan/ton, down 13% year-on-year [2] - The company has increased its production capacity significantly, with an estimated slaughter volume of 650 million birds in 2024 [2] - The estimated loss per bird is 0.5 yuan, but overall costs have improved significantly due to lower feed prices and management optimization, with total costs estimated below 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 1,000 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] Food Segment - Q1 revenue from processed meat products was 1.918 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 81,000 tons, up 11% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on a large food strategy, driving growth through both B2B and B2C channels [3] - The gross profit margin for food products is expected to improve due to lower prices in the raw food segment, contributing to a year-on-year increase in net profit of approximately 7 million yuan [3] Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.634 billion yuan, 2.184 billion yuan, and 2.112 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12X, 9X, and 9X [4][3] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 20.94% in 2024 [4]