STL(SZ:002648) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-09 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Satellite Chemical (002648) with a target price of 21.25 yuan, up from the previous target of 20.40 yuan [1][2]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was slightly below expectations, but it is positioned as a leader in light hydrocarbons, navigating through cycles and opening up future growth opportunities with new projects [1][2]. - The report highlights a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.95% in Q1 2024, with a revenue of 8.805 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.022 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 46.55% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2024 were reported at 21.66% and 11.59%, respectively, showing a slight improvement quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 41.487 billion yuan in 2023, projected to grow to 51.731 billion yuan in 2024, and further to 57.858 billion yuan in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.726 billion yuan in 2024, and 6.494 billion yuan in 2025 [2]. - The report indicates an EPS forecast of 1.70 yuan for 2024, 1.93 yuan for 2025, and 2.78 yuan for 2026 [1][2]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Satellite Chemical is recognized for its integrated production of ethylene using ethane cracking technology, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic market [2]. - The company is set to expand its high-performance materials production with new projects expected to launch in 2025, enhancing its long-term growth potential [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to navigate through market cycles and its strategic focus on high-end chemical materials, which is expected to drive future growth [1][2].