仙鹤股份2023FY&2024Q1业绩点评：一季度业绩略超预期，浆纸一体化基地逐步落地

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 26.46 yuan based on DCF valuation [19][37]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.553 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, a decrease of 6.55% compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.209 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.22%, although it experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 269 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 120.14% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.65% [1]. - The company's performance showed gradual recovery in the second half of 2023, with Q1 2024 results slightly exceeding market expectations. The revenue growth was primarily driven by new capacity additions, leading to a sales volume increase of approximately 20% [1]. - The company’s profitability improved significantly in Q4 2023, with a gross margin of 18.05%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to product price increases and stable raw material costs [1]. - The company is expected to implement price increases for certain products starting March 2024, which may support profitability in Q2 2024. New production capacities in Hubei and Guangxi are set to enhance the company's competitive strength in the specialty paper industry [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 8,553 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5%. The projected revenues for 2024 and 2025 are 10,872 million yuan and 14,412 million yuan, respectively, indicating a growth rate of 27.1% and 32.6% [23]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted to be 1,034 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.8% [23]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 14.8% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.5% [23].