AIA(01299) 国联证券·2024-05-09 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (01299) with a target price of HKD 80.0 [24] Core Views - AIA Group's NBV (New Business Value) for Q1 2024 reached USD 1.327 billion, a 31% YoY growth at constant exchange rates [3][7] - The company announced an additional USD 2 billion to its existing USD 10 billion share buyback program, to be completed within 12 months, exceeding market expectations [3][17] - AIA China and Hong Kong were the primary contributors to NBV growth, with YoY increases of 38% and 43%, respectively [7] - The company's optimized capital management policy includes a target dividend payout ratio of 75% of free surplus net amount, reflecting strong governance and confidence in future growth [17] Financial Performance - Annualized new premiums for Q1 2024 were USD 2.449 billion, up 26% YoY, with a new business value margin improving by 2.1 percentage points to 54.2% [7] - The agent channel contributed a 20% YoY increase in NBV, while the partner distribution channel saw a 70% YoY increase due to improved channel value rates [7] - AIA's total assets are projected to grow from USD 270.471 billion in 2022 to USD 350.804 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from USD 3.365 billion in 2022 to USD 5.430 billion in 2026 [10][15] Regional Performance - Mainland China's NBV growth outperformed domestic peers, driven by the "Best Agents" model, with new agent numbers and active new agent numbers both growing over 20% YoY [7] - Hong Kong's NBV growth was fueled by increased contributions from mainland tourists following the reopening of borders [7] - All other regions also achieved double-digit NBV growth, supported by the company's superior channel strategy and high-value products [7] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts AIA's net profit attributable to shareholders to grow to USD 4.316 billion in 2024, USD 4.965 billion in 2025, and USD 5.405 billion in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 15%, 15%, and 9%, respectively [23] - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to increase from USD 68.865 billion in 2022 to USD 72.277 billion in 2026, with EV per share (EVPS) rising from USD 4.86 in 2022 to USD 5.10 in 2026 [18] Capital Management - AIA's optimized capital management policy includes a commitment to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, starting from 2024 [17] - The company plans to review its capital position regularly and return any excess capital beyond operational needs [17]