光明乳业2023年报及2024一季报点评：Q1短期承压，静待改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 20% in the next six months [25][36]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 26.485 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.967 billion yuan, an increase of 168.19% year-on-year [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a total revenue of 6.417 billion yuan, down 9.25% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.172 billion yuan, down 8.07% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 31.35% [1]. Revenue Analysis - In 2023, the company's revenue from liquid milk, other dairy products, livestock products, and other products was 15.648 billion, 7.359 billion, 1.757 billion, and 1.384 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year change of 2.75%, -8.02%, -33.47%, and +24.75% [2]. - For Q1 2024, the revenue from liquid milk was 3.514 billion yuan, down 13.68% year-on-year, while other dairy products saw a slight increase of 0.96% [2]. Regional Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from Shanghai, other regions, and overseas was 7.112 billion, 11.715 billion, and 7.321 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.13%, -13.30%, and +5.95% respectively [2]. - In Q1 2024, revenue from Shanghai was 1.736 billion yuan, down 10.95% year-on-year, while overseas revenue increased by 5.64% [2]. Channel Performance - In 2023, the revenue from direct sales, distributors, and other channels was 5.904 billion, 20.133 billion, and 0.011 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.65%, -1.92%, and -23.22% respectively [2]. - For Q1 2024, revenue from direct sales was 1.383 billion yuan, down 15.67% year-on-year, while distributor revenue decreased by 7.15% [2]. Profitability Metrics - In 2023, the company's net profit margin and gross profit margin were 3.14% and 19.66%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.75 and 1.01 percentage points [3]. - For Q1 2024, the net profit margin and gross profit margin were 2.33% and 19.64%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.585 billion, 0.633 billion, and 0.667 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of -39.52%, 8.23%, and 5.26% respectively [3][21].