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24Q1业绩符合预期,资源自给率稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000630) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report indicate a revenue of 137.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.5% to 2.70 billion yuan [2] - The industry outlook suggests a widening supply-demand gap for copper, with long-term copper prices expected to rise due to increasing demand from the renewable energy sector and decreasing supply growth [2] - The company’s self-produced copper output is projected to increase, with the Mirador copper mine's second phase expected to be operational by June 2025, enhancing the company's resource self-sufficiency [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 137.45 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.70 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year. The Q4 net profit was 590 million yuan, down 14.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, but a net profit of 1.10 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year [2] Production and Pricing - The company’s production figures for 2023 included 175,600 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and 41,400 tons of copper processing materials, up 5.9% [2] - The average copper spot price for 2023 was 68,272 yuan per ton, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, while the average price for Q1 2024 was 69,000 yuan, also up 1% year-on-year [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for the next three years to be 3.88 billion yuan, 4.51 billion yuan, and 5.33 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.42 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 respectively [3][4] - The company is expected to enhance its copper foil production capacity from 55,000 tons to 80,000 tons by mid-2024, further solidifying its industry leadership [2]