海内外市场持续开拓，国企龙头份额有望提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate - A" with a target price of 6.30 CNY [11][16]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the metal packaging industry, continuously optimizing its product structure and capacity layout, which is expected to support steady growth in performance as the industry landscape improves [4][11]. - The company is facing challenges due to a slowdown in downstream demand and significant market fluctuations, prompting it to optimize its market business layout [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.76 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.22 billion CNY, down 18.58% year-on-year [2][12]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 1.94 billion CNY, a decline of 16.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.016 billion CNY, down 71.39% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q1 2024, the company recorded operating revenue of 1.98 billion CNY, an increase of 12.65% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 8.92% year-on-year [2][8]. Product and Market Analysis - In 2023, the company's revenue from metal beverage cans and printed iron packaging was 7.26 billion CNY and 0.48 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.83% and -40.04% [3]. - The company saw a slight increase in the sales volume of metal beverage cans, which rose by 2.56% to 14.77 billion cans, while the average price per can decreased by 8.1% to 0.49 CNY [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, with ongoing projects in Cambodia and Vietnam [3][4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 was 9.02%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.13%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year [8][12]. - The company managed to maintain a reasonable control over its operating expenses, with a total expense ratio of 4.23% in 2023, up 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [8][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 8.60 billion CNY, 9.61 billion CNY, and 10.73 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.82%, 11.75%, and 11.62% [11][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 0.26 billion CNY, 0.30 billion CNY, and 0.35 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 20.70%, 15.35%, and 14.09% [11][12].