Sungrow Power Supply(SZ:300274) CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-05-09 23:30Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [3] Core Views - The company's performance has grown rapidly, with significant improvement in profitability In 2023, the company's revenue from photovoltaic inverters, new energy investment and development, and energy storage systems reached 27,653 million yuan, 24,734 million yuan, and 17,802 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 60.97%, 113.15%, and 75.79% The gross profit margin in 2023 was 30.36%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points year-on-year, driven by brand premium, product innovation, economies of scale, reduced shipping costs, and exchange rate gains [2] - The company's global shipments of photovoltaic inverters reached 130GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 69%, maintaining a leading position globally The 1+X modular inverter has accumulated global orders exceeding 45GW by the end of 2023 The company successfully connected the world's first 2000V high-voltage inverter to the grid in the "Mengjiawan Photovoltaic Project" in Shaanxi, marking a significant step in cost reduction and efficiency improvement for photovoltaic systems [2] - In 2023, the company's global shipments of energy storage systems reached 10.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 36%, maintaining its position as the top Chinese company for eight consecutive years The company secured several large energy storage projects globally, including 138MW/330MWh in South Australia, 825MWh in the UK, and 264MWh in South Africa The company launched the PowerTitan2.0 liquid-cooled energy storage system, featuring a 314Ah large-capacity battery cell and integrated PCS, with a standard 20-foot container capacity of 2.5MW/5MWh [2] - The company has a long-term overseas strategy, with overseas revenue accounting for 46.19% of total revenue in 2023 By the end of 2023, the company's overseas production capacity in India and Thailand reached 25GW The company has established over 20 subsidiaries, six global service regions, 490+ service outlets, and hundreds of key channel partners, with products sold in more than 170 countries and regions [3][4] Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 72,251 million yuan in 2023 to 124,909 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 9,440 million yuan in 2023 to 13,844 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.5% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The company's ROE is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 29.4%, 25.5%, and 22.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 6.36 yuan in 2023 to 9.32 yuan in 2026, with a P/E ratio of 12.3x, 10.9x, and 10.1x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Industry and Market Position - The company is a global leader in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage system solutions, benefiting from product advantages and growing demand both domestically and internationally [4] - The company's global market share and technological advancements in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems position it well to capitalize on the ongoing energy transition and increasing adoption of renewable energy solutions [2][4]