Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (SZ:000983) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-05-09 23:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) with a target price of 12.43 CNY, up from the previous forecast of 10.00 CNY [1][4]. Core Views - The pressure on production has passed, and prices are expected to recover. The company reported a steady increase in coal production, but the annual output in 2024 may be affected by safety regulations [1][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 55.523 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.771 billion CNY, down 37.03% [1][4]. - The report highlights that the coal price has reached a bottom, with major companies showing strong performance certainty. The average selling price of coking coal is expected to stabilize [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s coal production reached 46.08 million tons, an increase of 5.09%, while the comprehensive selling price of commodity coal was 1,096 CNY per ton, down 13.72% [1]. - The cost per ton of raw coal was approximately 314 CNY, with a gross profit of 783 CNY per ton [1]. - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.12 CNY, 1.34 CNY, and 1.48 CNY respectively, with a PE valuation of 11.1x [1]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the coal price has stabilized, with major companies locking in prices significantly above market rates, enhancing performance stability [1][4]. - The report notes that the company’s dividend yield is expected to be around 7%, highlighting its high dividend value [1][4]. Industry Context - The report emphasizes that the impact of safety regulations on production is becoming clearer, and the performance of leading companies is expected to remain strong in the upcoming quarters [1][4]. - The report also mentions that the coal industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, driven by downstream steel production [1][4].