Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of HKD 28.9 billion based on a 17x PE ratio for 2024 [12][160] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 7.174 billion, RMB 8.826 billion, and RMB 10.382 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 26%, 23%, and 18% respectively [12][34] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be RMB 1.573 billion, RMB 1.928 billion, and RMB 2.259 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 17% respectively [12][36] - The company's main revenue comes from goods and equipment sales to franchisees, accounting for over 99% of total revenue [10][46] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from RMB 3.644 billion in 2021 to RMB 5.704 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [14][55] - Gross margin remained stable at around 34% from 2021 to 2023 [14][55] - Net profit margin was 20.2% in 2023, with operating expenses ratio at 2.3% for sales, 7.4% for administration, and 0.3% for R&D [55] - Inventory turnover days decreased from 20.1 days in 2022 to 19.2 days in 2023 [52] Market Position - The company ranked third in market share and store count in 2023, with a 7% market share [31][65] - As of 2023, the company had 7,801 stores, with 99% being franchise stores [76] - The company covers 31 provinces in China and has entered overseas markets including South Korea, Thailand, and Australia [21][134] Industry Analysis - The Chinese tea beverage market grew from RMB 805 billion in 2018 to RMB 2.473 trillion in 2023, with a CAGR of 25.2% [59] - The market is expected to reach RMB 5.385 trillion by 2028, with lower-tier cities showing significant growth potential [59][83] - The penetration rate of tea delivery increased from 47.6% in 2021 to 58.0% in 2023 [170] Growth Strategy - The company plans to expand its store network in lower-tier cities, with a potential store count of 11,923 based on current market density [120] - It is developing a sub-brand "Kahui" for coffee and baked goods, with the first store opened in Chengdu in January 2024 [121][156] - The company is building overseas supply chains and operational systems, focusing on Southeast Asian markets [104] Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a stable average price of RMB 16 per cup, with classic products priced at RMB 13.9 and seasonal products at RMB 16.6 [25][87] - It has a strong R&D capability, launching 48 new products and upgrading 13 existing products in 2023 [73] - The company has established a comprehensive logistics network with 21 multi-temperature warehouses covering 80,000 square meters [91]
茶百道首次覆盖报告：中端现制茶饮引领者，小店加盟高效扩张