ORIENTAL YUHONG(002271) 国泰君安·2024-05-10 07:32Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's retail and engineering channels have improved, optimizing revenue structure and enhancing gross margin [1] - The company achieved high shareholder returns for the first time in 2023, and this trend is expected to continue [1] - Revenue structure optimization is evident, with competitive advantages improving against the trend [1] - The company plans to distribute dividends of 1.47 billion yuan in 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 50%, the highest in recent years [1] - The company's national factory layout is complete, and capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly, improving cash flow and shareholder returns in the long term [1] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 32.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.15% [1] - 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders: 2.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.16% [1] - Q1 2024 revenue: 7.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.61% [1] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 348 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.81% [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts: 1.28 yuan, 1.46 yuan, and 1.62 yuan, respectively [1] - Target price adjusted to 25.92 yuan, corresponding to a 2024 PE of 20x [1] Revenue Structure and Gross Margin - Retail channel growth remains resilient, while direct sales have dragged down performance [1] - Mortar products are estimated to maintain high growth, with significant contributions from civil construction [1] - Q1 2024 gross margin: 29.68%, a year-on-year increase of 1.02 percentage points, driven by improved product mix and higher-margin retail products [1] - Structural improvements are expected to continue, with pricing stabilizing and cost advantages from winter storage [1] Shareholder Returns and Business Model - The company's high shareholder return trend is expected to continue due to business model adjustments [1] - The company's national factory layout is complete, and capital expenditures are expected to decrease significantly, improving cash flow and shareholder returns in the long term [1] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include Kosun (300737 SZ), Kailun (300715 SZ), and Weixing New Materials (002372 SZ) [3] - Average PE ratios for 2024 and 2025 are 21.8x and 16.7x, respectively [3] Historical Performance - 52-week stock price range: 12.99-30.91 yuan [1] - Total market capitalization: 37.752 billion yuan [1] - Average daily trading volume: 50.71 million shares, with an average daily trading value of 795.89 million yuan [1]