2023年报及2024年一季报点评：聚焦航空及军工主赛道，民机业务有望成为第二曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 40.00 yuan, corresponding to a PE of 38 times, 30 times, and 24 times for the projected EPS from 2024 to 2026 [29][52]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.39% in 2023, with total revenue of 9.54 billion yuan, primarily due to a decrease in testing prices from its subsidiary, Jinghanyu [29][49]. - The company is focusing on expanding its civil aviation business, which is expected to become a significant growth driver alongside its military products [49][52]. - The company has made significant progress in its landing gear business, achieving important application milestones and entering small batch production stages [37][49]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.02 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 20.58 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.50 billion yuan, 4.49 billion yuan, and 5.51 billion yuan [29][30]. - The gross margin for 2023 was reported at 59.78%, a decrease of 7.42 percentage points, while the net margin was 26.82%, down 12.90 percentage points [52][49]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly in 2023, reaching 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 238.50% due to better receivables collection [37][49]. Business Segments - The brake disc segment saw a revenue increase of 42.94% to 1.92 billion yuan, driven by the expansion of civil aviation customers, although the low gross margin of this segment led to a decline in profitability [3][49]. - The testing and inspection business, operated by Jinghanyu, faced a revenue drop of 25.73% to 327 million yuan, attributed to price reductions in testing services [3][49]. - The company is enhancing its production capabilities for landing gear and is expected to benefit from the growing demand in both military and civil aviation sectors [22][49].