YILI(600887) 海通证券·2024-05-11 07:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company reported stable annual performance with a revenue of 1257.58 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year (YOY) growth of 2.49%, and a net profit of 104.29 billion yuan, which is a YOY increase of 10.58% [4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 324.63 billion yuan, down 2.60% YOY, but net profit surged by 63.84% to 59.23 billion yuan [4]. - The company continues to enhance its profit margins, with a gross margin of 32.58% in 2023, up 0.32 percentage points from the previous year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1257.58 billion yuan (YOY +2.49%) and a net profit of 104.29 billion yuan (YOY +10.58%) [4]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 32.58%, with a gross profit of 409.70 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.51% increase YOY [4]. - The company’s total revenue for Q1 2024 was 324.63 billion yuan, with a net profit of 59.23 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 63.84% YOY [4]. Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue reached 855.40 billion yuan in 2023, with a market share maintaining the industry lead [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated 275.98 billion yuan, showing a YOY growth of 5.09% [5]. - The ice cream segment reported a revenue of 106.88 billion yuan, up 11.72% YOY, driven by new channel expansions [5]. Regional Performance - The East China market experienced a decline of 8.16% in 2023, while Central China showed a positive growth of 8.08% [5]. - The company’s revenue from the distribution model was 1207.47 billion yuan (YOY +2.77%), while direct sales generated 371.36 billion yuan (YOY +1.45%) [5]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1329.84 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits expected to reach 135.72 billion yuan [7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.13 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 16-20 times, indicating a fair value range of 34.08 to 42.60 yuan per share [7].