2023年报和2024年一季报报告点评：功率预测业务稳增长，新业务快速延申增长

Investment Rating - Strong Buy: Expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6 months [1][2] Core Views - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Guoneng Rixin (301162), highlighting steady growth in its core power forecasting business and rapid expansion in new product lines [2][9] - The target price is set at 62.2 CNY, based on a 55 times PE ratio for 2024 [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 456 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 26.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 84 million CNY, reflecting a 25.6% increase [3][25] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 619 million CNY, 809 million CNY, and 1,023 million CNY, with growth rates of 35.7%, 30.7%, and 26.5% respectively [3][9] - The net profit for the same years is projected at 112 million CNY, 145 million CNY, and 184 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 33.4%, 29.2%, and 26.8% [3][9] Business Segment Performance - The power forecasting business generated 268 million CNY in revenue, a 3.15% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a growing customer base and reduced costs in the solar and wind sectors [9] - The grid-connected intelligent control business saw a revenue increase of 75.81%, reaching 97 million CNY, driven by advancements in control technologies [9] - The new energy management system business achieved a revenue of 44 million CNY, growing by 125.10%, due to enhancements in management capabilities [9] - Innovative products contributed 25 million CNY in revenue, with a growth of 124.62%, reflecting the company's focus on expanding its product offerings [9] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 is reported at 67.55%, a slight increase of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is at 17.95%, down by 0.58 percentage points [9] - The report indicates an increase in operational expenses due to personnel expansion and incentive costs, with R&D expenses remaining high [9] Market Outlook - The company aims to leverage opportunities in the renewable energy sector, enhancing its market share in traditional power forecasting and grid control [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous innovation in technology and products to adapt to the evolving energy landscape [9]